Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Fantasy post

Ah yes, can you smell it? It's the sweet dewy nectar of fantasy football season in full swing. I have played fantasy football for many a years now (however only recently beginning to gamble on it) and have enjoyed relative success, but more so have grown to appreciate the greatest make-believe sport in existence. Anyways, this is not so much meant as a reflection of my fantasy nostalgia (ah the days of Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander and 27 TD's), but rather a brief guide to drafting this year.

For starters, I think the most important tip I could give this year is to wait on drafting a QB. For the last five or so years QB's have been steadily gaining in (somewhat warranted) popularity, however this popularity has become such a commonplace now that you see guys like Joe Flacco getting taken in the third round (rediculous!). Not only are top QB's being selected higher than ever before, but the depth of quality fantasy at the position is much deeper than in recent years. All of this is not to say avoid QB's at all costs, for instance Tom Brady in the third round, Tony Romo in the fourth, and Philip Rivers in the fifth would all be solid value picks; but rather that just because quarterbacks are getting picked like running backs in the second round, not to panic and take Matt Shaub. I think a team with either Eli Manning, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, or Vince Young as a starter and Ben Roethlisber (Picked past round 10 in every draft I've done so far) would be a good situation for almost any team.

Now I will move on the players that I think are going to have big fantasy years, starting with those more obvious:

Ray Rice: in my opinion the number two overall player
Rashard Mendenhall: Is there really any legitimate reason he should be picked behind Frank Gore? The answer is a whopping no.

Shonn Greene: How can you not like Greene's fantasy prospects this year. His last name is Greene and he plays for the Jets, what a combo.
Beanie Wells: Tim Hightower, simply put, is not good, and Beanie Wells has every bit the size and power of Adrian Peterson--yea that's right I said it, Adrian Peterson is overrated; he had an incredible line his rookie year, and has simply been in decline ever since.
Greg Jennings: GJ is in for a big time rebound from a mildly disappointing season.

Jahvid Best: I really like Best, could be the next Chris Johnson
Jermichael Finley: I don't know if there's anyone I think is a better fantasy value than Finley, round 5 for the likely top tight end in the game, I'll take it, and all season long I'll be saying TGIF.
Kevin Kolb: This year's Matt Shaub (but we all knew that)
Joe Flacco: If you can get him in round six or later he's a steal
Brent Celek: If only I didn't like Finley so much I'd probably own him on all of my teams
Hakeem Nicks: If you've seen Nicks play, than you will probably want him on your team.
Jeremy Maclin: He's like Percy Harvin except without the migraines and generally better.
Mike Wallace: Absolutely LOVE Mike Wallace, if he's around in round Six or later, you must draft him.
Justin Forsett: Possible breakout, love the potential
Jerome Harrison: Remarkably similar to Jamaal Charles, yet consistently drafted five rounds later.
Ben Roethlisberger: Why would you not take big ben?

Sleepers: Donald Brown: I think he's gonna be better than Addai this year
Laurence Maroney: Why not take a shot on him?
Mohammed Masaquoi: Love the name, like the game
Eli Manning: Does everyone know that Eli posted 4000+ yards and 27 TD's last year?
Arian Foster: I guess he's not really a sleeper, but he's clearly valuable

Super Sleepers:
Legedu Nanee: watch out
Jordy Nelson: Just an injury away
Bernard Scott: ditto
Jason Avant: Who knows?
Josh Freeman: I like this kid, what can I say
Mike Williams: Best rookie wideout? good chance says me.
Devin Thomas: Mcnabb has to throw to someone
Laurent Robinson: Only if he can come back from his injury, but keep an eye out.

Overrated Players:
I don't like this part, and thus it will be a much shorter list than above, but it's still important.

Frank Gore: I just can't understand the love affair with this guy, he's been in decline for a while now.
Cedric Benson: A steal last year, but I just don't trust him
Jonathan Stewart: How long can this backfield exist for?
Jamaal Charles: Ridiculous potential, but i see that in a lot of later round backs as well. Thomas Jones isn't bad either.
Sidney Rice: Can you say one hit wonder? He's not gonna beat the double teams he will now soon face.
Jason Witten: On the decline, in my opinion.
Austin Miles: I just can't quite trust him
Peyton Manning: key word overrated, cannot be trusted in fantasy playoffs (but he is the best quarterback in real football.
Steve Smith (NYG): I think Hakeem Nicks will be more productive this year.