Fantasy Football 2014: Running Backs

Never too early to start thinking about fantasy football football. The world cup is over, Kevin Love is unlikely to be traded for at least 20 days, and there is like 60 games left for most baseball teams. The lure of glory looms and the thirst for victory is insatiable. Well it is nearly August and plenty time enough to start joining leagues; surely you will not regret having an absurd amount of fantasy teams come November and you decide you want to have a life.

We start with running backs, who at one time ruled as kings over all other positions, dictating the fate of most  fantasy teams--especially those in flex leagues. Now the running back is on the steady decline; last year they were effectively eclipsed in importance by wide receivers. Will the running back rebound, or sink deeper into its ultimate demise, or pudder along nearly matching last year's low standard for achievement? Likely the latter, but with running backs there is always hope of true fantasy glory: Jamal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, and so and so on. There all always studs at running back, but finding one outside of the top five picks is always difficult, and moreover, picking one in the first round is no guarantee of success.

STRATEGY:
This year I think the best strategy is not necessarily to reach in rounds one and two (where there is the really only opportunity to land top end play makers at other positions), but look for rounds 3-6 to grab at least a couple, and hopefully have three solid RB's on your team. I think after my 16th rated running back (Zac Stacey) the crowd gets pretty dicey and relies heavily on optimism. I have Toby Gerhart ranked 17th, and while there is huge potential there, one cannot deny the inherent risk of putting faith in a completely unproven commodity. I think late in the draft there is plenty of potential for sleepers and I will get to that ahead.

THE STUDS (1. Adrian Peterson, 1. Jamal Charles, 1. Lesean McCoy, 4. Eddie Lacy, 5. Matt Forte, 6. Leveon Bell):
The first three need nothing said on their behalf, beside the fact that any one them would make a fine first overall pick and all must be picked in the top three overall. Eddie Lacy is pretty solid in the four spot, but I would still take Calvin Johnson over him. Matt Forte is not far behind lacy at all and I would not question anyone for taking him at number 5. Forte has been solid for years, is still young, and finally has a great offense to play in.  Look for his production to be similar to last years, but you should not expect the moon. Leveon Bell might be the biggest surprise here, but he fills all the requisites to be considered among the elite: past production, plays in potent offense, limited competition for carries, two way ability, evident talent, ascending. Pittsburgh may not have the best offense in the league, but they present a great opportunity for a young workhorse like bell, who gets plenty of points receiving the ball (and Pittsburgh has no options at WR outside of Antonio Brown). Injury is a minor, yet likely unnecessary concern.

OPPORTUNITY AND RISK: (7. Montee Ball, 11. Giovanni Bernard, 15. Andre Ellington, 17. Toby Gerhart, 20. Ben Tate, 22. Bishop Sankey)
The first two are pretty safe and also have the most upside in the group, but still they lack the experience of consistently carrying the load, so there is risk in taking them over top proven receivers, quarterbacks and Jimmy Graham. Andre Ellington elicits obvious parallels to a pair of colossal busts from last year, Lamar Miller and David Wilson. All three are small fast and showed huge potential as rookies before presuming number one duties in year two. We all know the story, Wilson was a huge bust before becoming injured after showing a glimmer of hope, while Miller muddled in mediocrity all season struggling to fend off Daniel Thomas for carries. But in fantasy one should not dwell on the past, but look to the future. That is why I Think Ellington is in line for a big season, even if he is small and grappled with seceding carries to inferior talent last season--but you should probably take him as your number two. Gerhart has the best opportunity to be the lead back of the bottom three here, but will Jacksonville's offense drag him down?

ONETIME FANTASY STUDS WHO MAY OR MAY NOT BE PAST THEIR PRIME:
(8. Demarco Murray, 9. Arian Foster, 10. Alfred Morris, C.J. Spiller, 13. Marshawn Lynch, 14. Doug Martin 16. Zac Stacey, 19. Trent Richardson, 21. Rashad Jennings, 24. Ryan Matthews, 27. Steven Ridley)
A vast group thats name says a lot about them. Everyone on this list has been a legit reliable stud for at least a short period of time (Rashad Jennings barely), yet arguably everyone on this list has seen their best days already. Murray, Foster, Spiller, Martin, and Mathews are injury risks. Morris, Stacey and Richardson perhaps set too high of standards during standout rookie years. Ridley is an inconsistent fumbler in the midst of four-way time share with an unpredictable coach and Marshawn Lynch may have been exhausted in the last three years. Yet everyone on this list has the potential to exceed expectations and have career years (even Foster and Lynch, they are not that old). Which leads to....

ONETIME FANTASY STUDS THAT ARE ABSOLUTELY PAST THEIR PRIME:
(18. Chris Johnson, 26. Frank Gore, 28. Ray Rice, 29. Steven Jackson, 32. Knowshon Moreno, 36. Fred Jackson, 39. Maurice Jones Drew, 43. Deangelo Williams 45. Darren Mcfadden)
Most aren't worth mentioning. Chris Johnson still has plenty of potential and has been quietly steady the last two years, but he is not rushing for 2000 yards. Rice is an interesting one, because I think he could actually bounce back and the opportunity is still there. Frank Gore may start another season and finish it solidly, but he will not lead you to glory in the playoffs, so consider him accordingly.

SLEEPERS:
(30. Carlos Hyde, 31. Bernard Pierce, 34. Terrance West, 35. Devontee Freeman, 37. Pierre Thomas, 38. Bryce Brown).
Actually there are not a lot of great sleepers. I like Hyde the best, because all that is standing between him and fantasy stud-dom is an aging declining Frank Gore. Devontee Freeman is just a really flashy player that I don't think necessarily needs a ton of touches to have a decent impact. Brown could come out pretty nice if Spiller and Jackson (both injury proned) get banged up.

HANDCUFFS:
(39. Jeremy Hill, 40. Nile Davis, 42. James Starks,  46. Christine Michael, 47. Joseph Randle, 48. Roy Helu, 49. Tre Mason

THE OTHER GUYS:

(23. Shane Vereen, 25. Reggie Bush, 33. Lamar Miller, 44. Darren Sproles, 50. Danny Woodhead)
Oddly enough a lot of pass catchers here. Their ranking reflects how much I like them.