Behold Greatness

Total QBR: a Totally Flawed Statistic

Advanced metrics in sports have recently become popular, especially in baseball, and to a lesser extent basketball--and this makes sense, these sports are played out over 162 games 82 games respectively, and many key statistics are based on finite percentages accumulated over many many games. That is why stats like WARP, WHIP, and PER, have been so successful, and, perhaps, the reason ESPN felt compelled to create this new absurd statistic, Total QBR.  But football is much different than these sports, there are but a mere 16 games in a season, it is played mostly outdoors and often in varying weather conditions (true baseball is played outdoors too, but in the summer when weather is not as significant a factor), and the stats accumulated in these games are much less consistent than in sports with structures in place that create consistency--such as the shot clock in basketball, and the number of outs in a game in baseball. Total QBR was invented by ESPN a couple of years as a so called 'improvement' to the somewhat archaic Quarterback Rating system that had long been in place. While I think that the initial quarterback rating has it's inherent flaws (mostly it overrates TD passes), it is a simple and somewhat effective tool for measuring passing numbers for a quarterback. Total QBR on the other hand takes the simplicity way out of the equation in an attempt to incorporate all of the factors that lead to a quarterbacks success, and essentially just goes way over the top. In attempting to include all of these statistics, Total QBR, actually accounts for far less consistency than if it were to focus on a smaller number of more important stats (like the original quarterback rating).  By trying to measure every part of the game, it really jumbles everything up.  .
So, what are some of the other reasons Total QBR is so dumb? For starters ESPN has yet to release the actual formula for total QBR, why is this? They have also altered the formula the last two seasons--implying they themselves can sense the flaws the system, but don't know quite how to fully correct them (I think they are in over their heads). By incorporating rushing statistics into to Total QBR, ESPN, unnecessarily over-complicates things; instead of being able to look at ones quarterback rating and also look at ones rushing statistics as separate entities that both lead to a quarterback's effectiveness, we must mush them together in a sort of unappealing casserole of a statistic. Furthermore there is no advanced statistic to measure one's rushing effectiveness for other postilions, so why does in only matter for quarterbacks? This is the reason that Total QBR was in love with 'quarterback' Tim Tebow, even though anyone who has seen him throw one of his horribly inaccurate passes would rightly know otherwise. One of my biggest qualms with Total QBR, is the the sort of 'clutch' elements that it way over-emphasizes. For some reason a quarterback who plays great in the first half and essentially has propelled their team to victory, is far less impressive that a quarterback that has not played well enough to put their team ahead but is able to ultimately win a close game by coming back in the fourth quarter. This is because of how the sports media has sensationalized the comeback like the the news media sensationalized serial killers and horrendous acts of violence. With Total QBR, ESPN gives the fan what they think they want, and not what actually makes sense.
I think that one of the ultimate conclusions when it comes to Total QBR is that it was invented for the ever-growing casual sports fan. With social media and twitter's increasing popularity, so too has sports grown in popularity, but not for those that check the box scores and read the long form articles, but rather the fans who need instant gratification. I think part of Total QBR's appeal is to the lazy fan, who just watches Sportscenter and does not take the time come through an array of statistics and create judgments for themselves, instead they rely on a simple statistic that may or may not include beard length among the various unknown factors in its formula. It seems like Total QBR is here to stay, and is becoming more and more commonplace among commentators and writers alike, which is a shame. I think ESPN's shadow is far to great to completely escape it. I just hope that people can learn to think twice when they look at Total QBR, and do the research themselves when a Tim Tebow scores better than an Aaron Rodgers.

Official Super Bowl Picks

Ok, Ok, here be my Superbowl picks:


Green Bay over Cincinnati

Fantasy Tips 2013

Ah yes, like opening a can of Zima on a hot day, fantasy football has instantly begun to refresh our dulled intellects. As summer carries on and sports seem to fade  into the nothingness of baseball everyday, we sometimes forget the greatness of football in the fall, and fantasy football which begins now. But hark, it is time, so alas I must reveal my sleepers, busts, players I like, dislike ect, and so on.  So here it is:

Players I like:

Jamaal Charles, RB: 1500 yards to go with 5.3 YPC last year on a recovered ACL, I think J-Mail might have his best season to date right in front of him.

C.J. Spiller, RB: Call me a YPC sucker, but I love the 6 yards a rush from Spiller last year, and he will only be more featured this year. The one legitimate concern is how bad the team is, but they were bad last year too.

Chris Johnson, RB: The fact that he actually came on pretty strong at the end of last year, coupled with the pick up of two stud guards should implicate a big time fantasy season for CJ2K.

Julio Jones, WR: I like Jones as much as any WR this side of Calvin Johnson. He should only improve from his all ready impressive second year.

Chris Ivory, RB: I think this is a very underrated running back, coming into a decent-to-good running situation, which should ultimately make Ivory a dependable number 2 back with upside. Downside of course is the Jets are so bad that Ivory inevitably struggles as well.

David Wilson, RB: Even if Andre Brown has a huge year for his ceiling (say 800 yards rushing and 10 TDs) that still leaves plenty of fantasy production to go around in this sure to be high powered offense.

Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson, WRs: Cobb and Nelson are 1 and 2 in the most potent passing attack in football, that's enticing enough, throw in the fact they are both young and improving receivers with proven track records and you should have some solid fantasy studs (I prefer Cobb among the two)

Cecil Shorts, WR: This guy is the real deal, and only a third year pro. I see big time potential despite an undesirable QB situation.

Giovanni Bernard, RB: I see big potential here, with an injury or production setback for BJGE. But even without such I see Bernard getting solid flex production.

Shane Vereen, RB: Could easily outproduce Ridley, will be very involved in passing game. 

Players Who I like Way More Than Their ADP

Lamar Miller, RB: I think Miller is a solid number 2 with the upside of a number 1. He has talent and opportunity, which remind me of say a Doug Martin last year, or Jamaal Charles a few years ago. 

 

RG3, QB: I cannot believe how low he is being drafted on averages; it's downright nuts. I think he is the number 4 QB behind Rodgers, Brees and Newton, and ahead of Manning and Brady. He will come back just like AP last year, mark it down. Just a tip though, I would draft a backup because of possible injury.

T.Y. Hilton, WR: This guy just has potential out the wazoo. I see him as a Santana Moss/Desean Jackson type ready to hit his prime and in a good situation. Do not be hesitant to snag T.Y.

Jerimichael Finley, TE: With TE's as thin as they are, Finley has as much potential as anyone to finally capitalize on his great talent (he is still only 25)

Players I Dislike (Fantasy Wise)

Greg Jennings, WR: I cannot see a great year coming his way with ponder slinging ducks

Andrew Luck, QB: I just think he's being over drafted a bit.

Eric Decker, WR: Clearly going to concede catches to Welker; Demaryius Thomas will not.

Frank Gore, RB: A decline is seemingly inevitable.

Jason Witten/Vernon Davis, TEs: Don't overdraft these tight ends just because it is a weak position, you will only find disappointment.

Reggie Wayne, WR: Too old, just too old. Why invest in something with such little potential for upside?

Eddie Lacy, RB: Would be very surprised if he became a fantasy option this year. But future potential is there.

Deep Sleepers 

Jonathan Franklin, RB: Could be the leading back coming out of Green Bay, he has the talent.

Daryl Richardson, RB: Lost in the shuffle last year, was how good Richardson actually played, with opportunity, he could really surprise some people.

Julian Edelman, WR: Hoping to fill Welkers role in New England, or some semblance of it. Brady has to throw to somebody and he and Edelman actually have a pretty good repoir.

Chris Givens, WR: This guy is T.Y. Hilton-lite, but he still has huge upside in 2013 and the future.

Danario Alexander, WR: Flashed big play ability last year for a consistent stretch. Only concern is injury.

Rob Housler/Jordan Cameron, TEs: The two premier sleeper TE's. Both have big talent, with potential huge opportunity in their coaching changes.

Ed Dickson, TE: Now becomes sleeper with Pitta out for season.

Bernard Pierce, RB: Very good player stuck in a less than ideal situation.

Kendall Hunter, RB: Could finally take the reigns in San Fran this year. 

NFL Mock Draft 4/25/2013

All right so here it is, my final mock draft of 2013. The NFL draft is probably my favorite experience in all of sports; it truly is where superbowls are won and bottom dwelling teams created.  Who can forget Aaron Rodgers waiting till the 24th pick to be taken by the Favre-led Packers, or Al Davis selecting Darius Hayward-Bey 7th overall, or Matt Millen selecting a wide receiver in the first round for three consecutive years. It is the moments like these that we both cringe at yet love to watch. Of course the ridiculous hype that now surrounds draft has grown increasingly irritable over the years, but can you really blame the media for catching onto this unusual sports gem. There is no game, live action, competition, big hits, tailgating, cheerleaders, or refs to blame, just pure statistics and football nerdery, and boy do I love it. Anyways onto the mock, no doubt this will prove far from accurate:

1. Kansas City: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

2. Jacksonville: Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

3. Oakland: Sharif Floyd, DT, Florida

4. Philadelphia: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

5. Detroit: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A & M

6. Cleveland: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

7. Arizona: Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

8. Buffalo: Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse

9. NY Jets: Tavon Austin, West Virginia 

10. Tennessee: Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU

11. San Diego: D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

12. Miami: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida St.

13. NY Jets: Star Lotuleilei, DT, Utah

14. Carolina: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

15. New Orleans: Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU

16. St Louis: Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia 

17. Pittsburgh: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia 

18. Dallas: Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina 

19. New York Giants: Tyler Eiffert, TE, Notre Dame

20. Chicago: Justin Cooper, G, North Carolina 

21. Cincinnati: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

22. St. Louis: Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

23. Minnesota: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

24. Indianapolis: D.J. Haden, CB, Houston

25. Minnesota: Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame

26. Green Bay: Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

27. Houston: Deandre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

28. Denver: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida St.

29. Atlanta: Justin Pugh, G, Syracuse

30. New England **TRADE** Philadelphia: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia 

31. San Francisco: John Cyprien, S, Florida International 

32. Baltimore: Robert Woods, WR, USC  

Picks, Picks and more Picks

Well just another year, just another bracket eh? Simple enough to me. Anyways I'm gonna try to keep this short cause I got a lot of picks to get to, just so you all can see that I'm really a pretty poor prognosticator, however I once did have the ability to pick the future in sports (Rams over Titans in like 2000, before the season started no joke), but this ability decimated once I had a Bar Mitzvah for reasons not entirely know anyways onto it (and no, I do not consider the "first four" an actual round).

round of 32:

Ohio St.

George Mason

Clemson

Kentucky

Xavier

Syracuse

Washington

Long Island (in the biggest upset of the tourney)

Duke

Tennessee

Arizona

Texas

Missouri

Uconn

Penn St.

San Diego St.

Kansas

UNLV

Richmond

Morehead St. (another significant upset)

VCU

Purdue

Texas A & M

Notre Dame

Pitt

Old Dominion (this my squadd)

Utah St.

Wisconsin

Gonzaga

BYU

UCLA

Florida

Round of 16:

Ohio St. (but be weary)

Kentucky

Xavier

Washington

Duke

Texas

Uconn

San Diego St.

Kansas

Richmond

Purdue

Notre Dame

Old Dominion (that's right)

Wisconsin

BYU

UCLA

Elite 8:

Ohio St.

Xavier

Texas

San Diego St.

Kansas

Notre Dame

Old Dominion

BYU

Final Four:

Kansas, BYU, San Diego St, Ohio St.

Championship:

Kansas over Ohio St.

Recap: I went way more chalk than usual this year, but hopefully that will me there actually are a lot of upsets (for irony sake). I don't really care how my bracket does I just care about the madness.

It's all done but the crying

Well since digital processes has come to a dramatic end (not really, it was actually pretty anticlimactic) I now must once again find meaning in myself, life, and food portraits. Overall I can't say I'm disappointed that I will no longer have to be frequently chewing and gluing tiny pieces of food to pizza box, but it certainly did happen. The biggest problem I faced throughout the whole project was probably a dearth of glue sticks, which I was ultimately only partially able to overcome. I will however dearly miss the 'quest for the apple,' or playing snake regularly in hopes achieving unparalleled success, but this will actually likely continue. The most disappointing aspect of the whole project was probably the way I died in the one epic snake game that I video taped. i really thought I was gonna break through and just fill up the whole screen, and then bam I'm dead, unbelievable. I actually have scored better games then the one shown in the movie, but I don't know if I have ever had a better set up and feel that deep in, not to mention it was probably the largest snake I have ever achieved. Now I know this all sounds like it's all about masculinity (what with Magic Johnson, over-sized snakes, naked men next to beer can walls, and werewolf Bar Mitzvahs) and maybe it is (I mean I do love masculinity, and know no one more masculine than I), but I think the larger reference transcends gender. It does not really matter who you are, we all want the apple (whatever it may be) and it's almost always impossible to capture.